A geoscientist who has studied the Mount Meager complex said last week’s landslide was a “medium” size compared to the area’s slide history, and he and others have warned local governments and the Province in the past about the risks to people and property in the Pemberton Valley should a massive slide occur at Meager.

Pierre Friele was the lead author of a March 2008 academic paper outlining the calculated hazard and risk from large landslides from Mount Meager. A letter, accompanied by the independent study, was sent to the Village of Pemberton, the Squamish Lillooet Regional District (SLRD) and the Solicitor General’s office at the time. Friele followed up again in 2009 but “there was very little interest,” he said.

“They haven’t really done anything,” Friele said Monday (Aug. 9) about the response to the study from various government officials.

The scientists behind the 2008 study, which was published in the academic journal Georisk, did mapping of past slides where debris flows reached down into Pemberton Meadows and beyond, he said. Based on the area’s landslide history, a large slide has occurred every 2,000 years.

If it occurred today, the largest slide recorded would likely “generate a debris flow that would destroy much of the development in Lillooet (River) valley and, if not preceded by warnings, would kill hundreds or possibly thousands of people,” the study’s conclusion reads.

“The whole Pemberton Valley is essentially in a hazard zone,” Friele said.

He and the other study authors also calculated the risk to individuals and society and compared it to international standards for landslide danger. The risk of landslides that could affect Pemberton is “unacceptable by a fair margin” based on standards in England, Australia and Hong Kong, he said.

Paul Edgington, the SLRD’s chief administrator, confirmed on Tuesday (Aug. 10) that the study was received at the regional district in March 2008. It was presented to the board with a staff recommendation to study the feasibility and cost of installing and operating an early warning system — a measure recommended in the study as “the minimum requirement” for responsible risk management.

Edgington said he recalls the board’s discussion at the time revolving around the idea that the Province should undertake a feasibility study for an early warning system. At the end of the day, the board felt the matter fell under the Province’s jurisdiction, he said.

By way of advising the public of the hazard, SLRD officials posted the 2008 report to its website and it runs a newspaper advertisement about it each year, Edgington said. The next ad is due for publication in September, he added.

“It’s a notice to the public that advises of the hazard and points them to our website, to make people aware of it as a disclosure obligation under the Freedom of Information and Privacy Act,” he said.

Edgington said he thinks SLRD officials took the report’s findings seriously. If they weren’t taken seriously the risk wouldn’t be advertised, he said.

Edgington said he remembers having discussions about the issue with provincial government officials, but he doesn’t recall the outcome.

Comment from B.C.’s Ministry of Public Safety and the Solicitor General’s office was not available by The Question’s press deadline.

Friele said there is still a risk of further major landslides in the various creek areas in the Meager complex.

“There’s still masses of material that could come down out of any number of creeks,” he said.

He’s still recommending an early warning system be installed, consisting of sensors or triggers that would register the early stages of a debris flow. An example of an early warning system for landslides is in place at Mount Ranier in Washington State.

“There ought to be some sort of early warning system in place,” Friele said.

Another fundamental issue is public awareness, he said. Similar to the large yellow sign posted at the entrance to the forest service road into the Meager area that advises recreational users of the hazards, Friele said he would like to see such signs posted at the entrance to Pemberton and in other prominent areas in the valley.

There’s an important distinction between voluntary and involuntary risk, he said.

“It’s unfair to subject people to risk unknowingly,” Friele said.